The shift back toward a standard 25 basis-point cut is a reflection of the more normal sentiment across the market, as stocks erased much of the intense gains experienced during the sharp selloff at the beginning of the month and bond yields returned to where they stood before the doomed jobs report as the flight to safety slowed. The most recent of the Fed’s rate-setting committee’s 10 yearly meetings concluded July 31, two days before the U.S. reported an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to a near 3-year high of 4.3%, up from July 2023’s 3.5% and triggering one recession indicator which has frontrun prior major downturns. Driving the bounceback in sentiment was last Thursday’s weekly jobless claims report which revealed fewer new unemployment applications than forecasted, easing concerns about an imminent labor market unraveling. The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision.
Federal Reserve Economic Data
The probability of a 50 basis-point cut is now 47.5%, according to CME Group data, which tracks trading of futures contracts speculating on the direction of monetary policy. Investing.com – U.S. producer prices growth slowed more than expected on an annual basis in July, in the latest sign of cooling inflationary pressures in the world’s largest economy.The producer… Our community is about connecting people through open and thoughtful conversations. We want our readers to share their views and exchange ideas and facts in a safe space.
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- Interest rate expectations have inched back to where they were prior to the Aug. 2 jobs report, which caused intense recession fears and inspired some calls for the Fed to immediately lower rates in a rare emergency move; the odds of a 25 basis-point cut on Aug. 1 was 78% compared to 22% for a 50 basis-point cut.
- We want our readers to share their views and exchange ideas and facts in a safe space.
- The shift back toward a standard 25 basis-point cut is a reflection of the more normal sentiment across the market, as stocks erased much of the intense gains experienced during the sharp selloff at the beginning of the month and bond yields returned to where they stood before the doomed jobs report as the flight to safety slowed.
- Investing.com – U.S. producer prices growth slowed more than expected on an annual basis in July, in the latest sign of cooling inflationary pressures in the world’s largest economy.The producer…
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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher in tight trading ranges Tuesday, as traders awaited the release of the July producer price index, the first of the week’s inflation double bill, as a guide… Please read the full list of posting rules found in our site’s Terms of Service. In order to do so, please follow the posting rules in our site’s Terms of Service.
Federal Open Market Committee
Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of the year. Trump Media to the Saudi Arabian influence on golf and what real-life billionaires think of “Succession.” Send tips to Follow Saul for analysis on the biggest daily economic and stock market happenings, ranging from inflation data to tech earnings to deep-dives on hot button assets. A trio of monthly inflation reports this week, led by Wednesday’s consumer price index, will likely further shed light on the Fed’s immediate course of action, considering the central bank first began the rate hikes in 2022 to curb inflation and maintains it wants to see continued progress in inflation to lower rates. Interest rate expectations have inched back to where they were prior to the Aug. 2 jobs report, which caused intense recession fears and inspired some calls for the Fed to immediately lower rates in a rare emergency move; the odds of a 25 basis-point cut on Aug. 1 was 78% compared to 22% for a 50 basis-point cut.