The July data suggest that we plan to increase our purchases in the coming weeks while taking on more debt. A new report released Tuesday by Zeta Global, an artificial intelligence-powered marketing cloud, also suggests the job market is softening but the overall economy appears strong. The unemployment rate has ticked up in every month of 2024 except February. Still, the economy created jobs in July and the jobless rate remains historically low.
The economy’s health since 2020 based on the Zeta Economic Index
But the company said, “They are still below the historical recession threshold and still lower than they were a year ago.” The inclusion of a company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average does not depend on defined criteria. Instead, an independent Wall Street Journal commission decides whether a share is to be included or excluded. There are no fixed times for reviewing the composition of the index, since changes are only made by the commission as and when they are needed. Like the Swiss Market Index (SMI), the Dow Jones is a price index.
- On Tuesday, investors will digest the first of two inflation data points due out this week.
- The inclusion of a company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average does not depend on defined criteria.
- The stock market wavered on Monday ahead of the July PPI report.
- But the company said, “They are still below the historical recession threshold and still lower than they were a year ago.”
- Markets are clamoring for lower interest rates, but a move by the Fed would also be an acknowledgement that the economy is slowing.
U.S. STOCKS
The producer price index, a measure of wholesale inflation, is expected to be in-line with the June data at 0.2%. The stock market wavered on Monday ahead of the July PPI report. Stocks jumped after a cool PPI reading for July, setting the stage for consumer price inflation to show improvement when CPI is released Wednesday. Geopolitical tensions also flared anew to start the week, with the Pentagon sending more US forces to the Middle East ahead of a potential attack by Iran.
Historical Prices for Dow Jones
The US has been anticipating an attack on Israel following the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran. US stocks wavered on Monday, struggling to keep the rally that materialized at the end of last week going ahead of new inflation data for July. “A slight decline in job market sentiment and a slowdown in particular sectors suggests that further economic expansion will be uneven,” Zeta Global CEO David A. Steinberg said.
When world markets fall with big red numbers like they did last week, investors are shaken and 401(k)s are dented. Should that have us on edge about the direction of the economy? Data are provided ‘as is’ for informational purposes only and are not intended for trading purposes. Data may be intentionally delayed pursuant to supplier requirements. “Fears over the health of the economy escalated drastically in recent days,” Oxford Economics, an independent economic advisory firm, said in its Recession Monitor on Wednesday.
Stock market today: Indexes close mixed before fresh inflation data
The second update will be the main event, with the consumer price index set to show the rise in inflation faced by the average consumer last month. Economists expect the reading to show a slight rise on a monthly basis, though not enough to scramble predictions for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates at its policy meeting next month. The issues rippling through the world’s stock markets in recent days are much more varied and complex than just a disappointing jobs report. On Tuesday, investors will digest the first of two inflation data points due out this week.
“We think that is an overreaction to what has been a steady weakening in the incoming economic data.” Small-cap stocks are set to surge, according to Goldman Sachs’ Greg Tuorto. Why he avoids small-cap indexes, and his top 6 companies to invest in. Zeta Global monitors the anonymized online behaviors of 240 million Americans. Perhaps among the trillions of data points analyzed by the company’s AI system, prospective employees are lamenting the challenges of landing a job. The Oxford Economics index turned down in its July forecast, meaning the odds of a recession have risen.
The shares included in it are weighted according to price; the index level represents the average of the shares included in it. Higher unemployment, the yen carry trade, the unwinding of AI trade are a few of the biggest concerns now. Stocks seesawed between gains and losses throughout the session, unable to decisively erase the losses from last Monday’s sell-off, which was the worst in two years.
Even with the job sentiment decline in July, the company’s overall measure of the economy’s strength – the Zeta Economic Index – continues to rise. These jitters may be a sign of a gap that’s opened between the future investors see and the one economists see. The July inflation report arriving on Wednesday morning will likely be the next big number. Markets are clamoring for lower interest rates, but a move by the Fed would also be an acknowledgement that the economy is slowing.
Fears of a recession are what sparked the latest big sell-off and any weakness in the economic picture could be the catalyst for the next big move down in stock prices. “Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future,” Peterson wrote. “Expectations for future income improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions ahead.” Zeta Global’s indexes rely on collecting and analyzing the online actions of consumers, who account for almost 70 cents of every dollar spent in the U.S. economy.