Review The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t
by NATE SILVER
Description
Nate Silver delves into the world of predictive models and explains why some work and some don’t. He inquires into the effectivity of predictions and how to identify signals from noise. He delves into a discussion about how the general public view probability and uncertainty, so as to clarify how predictions fail. Not only does he discuss predictions, but he also observes successful forecasts of all time so as to distinguish success from failures.
Nate Silver made use of the popularity of big data in 2012 and published this book about predictions. He discusses the difference between predictions that work and don’t—and the factors that cause them to fail or to succeed. Silver is very factual and direct in his manner of discussion and includes many examples of famous forecasts.
He ensures to define industry jargon so as to allow even the general public to understand the context of his discussion. Overall, this book is recommended to anyone who is interested in how professionals, or to learn how to identify signals from noise in forecasts.
About the Author
NATE SILVER is an author, statistician, and the founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, The New York Times political blog. He developed PECOTA, which is a system for forecasting baseball performance bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was included in Time magazine’s 100 Most Influential People.
Table of Contents
Introduction
- A CATASTROPHIC FAILURE OF PREDICTION
- ARE YOU SMARTER THAN A TELEVISION PUNDIT?
- ALL I CARE ABOUT IS W’S AND L’S
- FOR YEARS YOU’VE BEEN TELLING US THAT RAIN IS GREEN
- DESPERATELY SEEKING SIGNAL
- HOW TO DROWN IN THREE FEET OF WATER
- ROLE MODELS
- LESS AND LESS AND LESS WRONG
- RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINES
- THE POKER BUBBLE
- IF YOU CAN’T BEAT ‘EM
- A CLIMATE OF HEALTHY SKEPTICISM
- WHAT YOU DON’T KNOW CAN HURT YOU
Conclusion
Acknowledgments
Notes
Index