Review Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
by PHILIP E. TETLOCK and DAN GARDNER
The ability to accurately predict entails a lot of advantages, whether in stock purchases, policy-making, the introduction of a new product, or just plainly setting up schedules for a week. However, people always miss and are deemed to be bad at predictions. Such a statement was attested back in 2005 by Philip Tetlock’s research. The study stated that even advanced practitioners falter from hitting the most accurate guess, and the hypothesis is the only margin better than luck. Though this academic study proves a point, it missed a crucial conclusion proposing that experts have real foresight. Tetlock dedicated years trying to understand this phenomenon and whether this skill can be acquired or taught.
In this book Superforecasting, authors provide an authoritative and highly-reliable introduction on prediction practices and principles. Contents of the book were enshrined from years of intensive studies and results of a government-funded forecasting competition. Readers will be introduced to the Good Judgment Project, an organization composed of thousands of people. These people share a common interest in prediction, and their expertise when it comes to such is highly laudable. These people have records of outsmarting benchmarks, competitors, and other markets. What’s interesting about these people is their history of beating the prediction of intelligence analysts equipped with internal information. Through this, they sealed the title, “superforecasters.”
The authors rendered discussions on how an ordinary individual can follow the footsteps of these masters. Complete with success stories in prediction and some setbacks in career, it would be known to readers that high-end computers and tested methodologies are not the real reinforcements. Intensive and meticulous data gathering, critical thinking, collective efforts, and admitting errors are all factors that constitute an accurate, and powerful prediction.
About the Authors
PHILIP E. TETLOCK works at the University of Pennsylvania as the Annenberg University Professor. In line, he is also a visiting professor in psychology and political science departments at Wharton School of Business.
DAN GARDNER is an esteemed journalist and is popular for his book Risk and Future Babble: Why Pundits are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best.
Table of Contents
- Chapter 1: An Optimistic Skeptic
- Chapter 2: Illusions of Knowledge
- Chapter 3: Keeping Score
- Chapter 4: Superforecasters
- Chapter 5: Supersmart?
- Chapter 6: Superquants?
- Chapter 7: Supernewsjunkies?
- Chapter 8: Perpetual Beta
- Chapter 9: Superteams
- Chapter 10: The Leader’s Dilemma
- Chapter 11: Are They Really So Super?
- Chapter 12: What’s Next?
Appendix: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters